Last Updated: 2026-10-25
Risk warning: Prediction-market trading can lose the entire stake. This is an illustrative research design, not financial advice, a tested trading system or a recommendation to trade.
The useful job for an AI assistant is to organize evidence and expose missing information. A fluent probability estimate is not proof of an edge. Start with a paper record that cannot place orders; only evaluate forecasts made before outcomes were known.
Correction: An earlier version described a “1,322% in 48 hours” agent as verified without supplying the wallet, cash-flow history or trade ledger. That performance claim is withdrawn from this guide. Even the stated $740-to-$9,790 figures imply a 1,222.97% gain before deposits, withdrawals and costs, not 1,322%. Correcting that arithmetic would not verify the story.
Build a dossier, not an instruction to buy
For each candidate question, save the following before asking a model to summarize it:
Scroll sideways to see every column. Keyboard: focus the table region and use the arrow keys.
| Record | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Exact contract text, market ID, outcome token and rules | Similar headlines may settle differently. |
| Resolution source, deadline and timezone | News about the event may not satisfy the actual contract. |
| Timestamped source links and publication times | Later information must not leak into an earlier forecast. |
| Executable bid/ask depth and timestamp | A displayed last price is not a fill available for your quantity. |
| Fees, assumed slippage and settlement delay | A gross probability gap is not net profit. |
| Conflicting evidence and missing inputs | The correct output may be “insufficient information.” |
The provider’s resolution documentation explains winning and losing token settlement. Check the particular contract rather than treating a high price or an approaching deadline as proof of its outcome.
Give the assistant a bounded assignment
Use only the attached, timestamped sources and contract rules.
Separate direct observations, calculations and hypotheses.
List evidence for and against each outcome, including source conflicts.
Do not invent a probability, quote, wallet result or missing fact.
If you give a probability range, explain its basis and what would change it.
Return insufficient_information when rules, timestamps or evidence are inadequate.
Do not submit orders or recommend a position size.Keep the raw inputs, prompt, model/version, output and review decision. A citation generated by the model must be checked against the supplied document. A repeated answer from the same model is not independent confirmation.
A worked paper decision, including abstention
Assume a fictional contract pays $1 if an event occurs. Your analyst records a subjective probability range of 45–55%, an executable ask of $0.50 for 100 shares, and $1 total modeled fees and slippage.
Scroll sideways to see every column. Keyboard: focus the table region and use the arrow keys.
| Assumed probability | Expected payout | Cost | Expected net result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45% | $45 | $51 | −$6 |
| 50% | $50 | $51 | −$1 |
| 55% | $55 | $51 | $4 |
The range crosses zero; this does not establish a robust positive expectation. Record no paper entry: result depends on an uncertain probability estimate. If the resolution source is missing, record insufficient information instead of assigning a more confident number. No real market or forecast is being represented by these inputs.
Evaluate the forecast before evaluating a strategy
Freeze a chronological evaluation set. Keep every eligible forecast, including abstentions and losses, rather than selecting successful screenshots. Compare the assistant with a stated baseline such as the recorded market price at the same timestamp. Report sample count and period, probability calibration, missing outcomes and any selection exclusions.
A Brier score averages (forecast probability − outcome)^2, with outcome 1 or 0. One forecast of 0.6 followed by outcome 1 contributes 0.16; the same forecast followed by 0 contributes 0.36. A smaller error on a tiny selected set does not establish trading profitability. Paper fills also need explicit depth, latency and partial-fill assumptions; they are not a live-execution record.
Bound the operational experiment
Use read-only inputs and a paper ledger with no trading credentials. Reject stale evidence, expired quotes and inconsistent market IDs. A failed refresh must mark the decision unavailable, not silently reuse an old signal. Test duplicate events, missing sources, contradictory rules and delayed data before trusting the report.
Budget the research separately from any hypothetical returns. At an assumed $4–$16 per day for model calls, 30 days costs $120–$480 for those calls alone. Hosting and data costs would be additional. Set a spending cap in the design; a budget estimate is not authorization to spend or connect a live account.
Five percent compounded 30 times is about 4.32 times starting capital, but this arithmetic supplies no evidence that such returns are attainable. This guide sets no monthly-return target and offers no weekend-to-live path. A funded small trade is still live trading, not paper testing.
Affiliate disclosure: AITR may earn commissions from marked referral links elsewhere on the site. This guide contains no referral recommendation. Commercial relationships do not establish the performance of an AI system.