Last Updated: 2026-10-25
Risk warning: These are constructed arithmetic examples, not financial advice, tested trades or return forecasts. Trading can lose the entire stake.
A price difference is only the start of the calculation. To lock a payoff, positions must cover the same precisely defined outcomes, in the right quantities, at executable prices. Correlated events and a high estimated win probability do not satisfy that test.
An exact two-outcome basket
Assume one fictional contract has exactly two exhaustive, mutually exclusive outcomes, YES and NO, with one winning share paying $1. Buy 100 YES shares at an ask of $0.46 and 100 NO shares at $0.51. The cash allocation is $46 and $51: dollars are proportional to price because the share counts are equal.
Scroll sideways to see every column. Keyboard: focus the table region and use the arrow keys.
| Final outcome | YES payout | NO payout | Basket payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| YES | $100 | $0 | $100 |
| NO | $0 | $100 | $100 |
The basket costs $97 before charges. With $1 of total costs, the modeled surplus is $2, or 2.04% of the $98 outlay. If total costs are $4, the basket instead loses $1. The condition is all-in cost below the guaranteed payout, not a sum above $1. These are assumed quotes, not an available opportunity.
Read the contract-resolution documentation and the specific rules, including any exceptional resolution. The table is valid only under the stated binary payoff assumption.
Execution can break the basket
If only 60 NO shares fill while all 100 YES shares fill, the outcome payouts become $100 or $60. That is no longer the basket above. Before calling a result locked, record executable depth, filled quantities, fees, cancellations, available collateral and any unmatched exposure. A limit order being accepted does not prove it filled.
Across platforms, compare exact wording, timezone, authoritative source, void/cancellation treatment, currency and redemption timing. Matching headlines are insufficient. A difference can compensate for settlement or custody risks rather than represent a free gain. Access restrictions still apply; a VPN does not establish eligibility.
Related events are not interchangeable contracts
“Candidate wins state A” and “candidate wins nationally” can differ in the final outcome. Summing state probabilities does not replicate a national contract. A monthly-average interest-rate future also has a different payoff from a binary decision at one meeting. Write a row for every possible joint outcome; if any row loses money, the position is not a guaranteed-profit basket under that model.
Keep return denominators explicit
Buying NO at $0.82 and selling it at $0.96 gains $0.14, or 17.07% of the $0.82 stake, before costs. It is not a 350% return calculated against the later YES price of $0.04. A YES share bought for $0.92 that settles at zero loses 100% of the stake.
A share costing $0.04 and paying $1 earns 2,400% if it wins, but loses 100% if it loses. That conditional payout is not an annual return or an estimate of its probability. Annualizing a short, selected success does not establish a repeatable opportunity.
A review record worth keeping
Save market IDs, rules and timestamps; a payoff table for all outcomes; quantity and depth for every leg; actual costs; unmatched exposure; and settlement/custody assumptions. Leave the status “unverified” until those records reconcile. This replaces the former unsupported risk-free and 20–40% annual-return claims.
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