Last Updated: 2026-10-25
A public account can help you reconstruct positions and transactions. It cannot, by itself, identify a person, reveal their total wealth or explain why they traded. Use this worksheet to decide whether a performance claim is reproducible before treating a large wallet as a signal. It is a research method, not a directory of recommended accounts.
Establish the account and the observation window
Record the complete account address, network, profile URL, source URL, retrieval time in UTC and the start/end of the period. A display name or shortened address is not enough to reproduce a lookup. Keep the distinction between an account, a signing wallet and an attributed person. If several accounts may belong to one person, record the attribution source and confidence; do not count them as independent successful traders or merge them on intuition.
Scroll sideways to see every column. Keyboard: focus the table region and use the arrow keys.
| Question | Evidence to retain | What remains unknown |
|---|---|---|
| Which position? | Market/condition ID, outcome/token ID, resolution terms and quantities | A similar headline may describe a different contract |
| What happened? | Dated fills, transfers, settlements and the query filters | A filtered or truncated response may omit losses or earlier acquisitions |
| What is held now? | Timestamped quantities and valuation method | Marked value is not guaranteed executable proceeds |
| Whose decision? | Explicit public attribution, separately dated | Ownership, intention and off-platform hedges may be unknown |
The official positions documentation separates current value, realized/unrealized PnL and account/position identifiers. Account activity and the PnL series are different views. Checked October 25, 2026; save the API version, filters and pagination used. A successful response is not proof that you collected a complete lifetime history. This review did not query or certify any named wallet.
Reconcile money before calculating a return
For a defined account boundary, a simple dollar reconciliation is:
period PnL = ending equity + withdrawals - deposits - starting equity
Use the same valuation basis at both ends. Equity includes cash and open positions. Transfers within a combined group are not external deposits/withdrawals; count them once at the boundary. Unmatched transfers, missing opening inventory or unpriced positions leave the reconciliation incomplete. Fees already deducted from balances must not be deducted again.
Synthetic example: an account starts with $1,000, receives $500 during the period, withdraws $100 and ends with $1,600 total equity. Its reconciled change is $200, not the $600 increase in the ending balance. If $400 of that ending equity is an open position, $1,600 is not all cash. Dividing $200 by the initial $1,000 gives 20%, but that is not a defensible period return when the timing and use of the additional $500 are ignored. Record dated cash flows before selecting a time-weighted or money-weighted method. Profit divided by trading turnover is a different ratio, not return on invested capital.
For an individual position, distinguish sale/settlement proceeds from profit. A synthetic $300 purchase paying $500 on settlement produces $200 before costs, not $500 profit. If half the shares remain open, do not call the whole position realized. A current mark for those shares is not evidence that they could all be sold at that price.
Test what a leaderboard leaves out
Start with a cohort selected before its evaluation window, including accounts that stop trading or lose. Define the unit: fill, position, market or account. Multiple fills in one outcome are not independent predictions; several markets may depend on the same election or price event. Report the denominator and treatment of open positions, rather than calling an unspecified percentage a win rate.
Win rate alone does not establish profitability. In a synthetic set of ten $1-stake trades, nine profits of $0.05 and one $1 loss give a 90% win rate but a $0.55 loss before costs. Neither that example nor a winning wallet proves a repeatable strategy. Concentration among selected winners does not establish that concentrating is the best policy for a new account.
Convert an alert into a research note, not an order
Write down the observed fill time, your observation time, the currently available ask/bid and depth, resolution wording and your own reason for reviewing the event. A historical entry price may no longer be available. The wallet may have another leg elsewhere, have sold already, or be transferring inventory rather than expressing conviction. A large fill or several apparently related accounts cannot establish emotion, insider knowledge or independent confirmation.
A smaller bankroll is not a reason to increase the percentage copied: 1% of $1,000 is $10 and 1% of $100,000 is $1,000, but both are 1% of their respective balances. No allocation is recommended here. Separate addresses also do not diversify the loss if every position depends on the same outcome.
Your finished note should contain observable facts; calculations; hypotheses; unknowns; and the evidence that would change your interpretation. Leave a missing address, cost basis or identity marked unresolved. Do not fill the gap with a biography, a return target or a claim about what the trader was thinking.
Why the former profiles lead here
Earlier millionaire profiles, wallet rankings and the promised twelve-address list did not supply sufficient account/source records to reproduce their claims. They also conflicted on identity, payout versus profit and hidden hedges. Their originals are preserved in the local editorial archive; those claims are not evidence for this worksheet. A historical case can return only with dated sources and a traceable account/transaction reconstruction. This does not establish that every earlier anecdote was false.
Disclosure: The site may earn commissions from commercial links elsewhere; these documentation links are direct. Risk: Prediction-market trading can lose the entire stake. Public data, past profit and educational examples do not establish a future edge, eligibility or financial advice.