Last Updated: 2026-10-27
Start with the question you need to answer. The guides below explain contract mechanics, cost accounting and research records. They do not supply a list of profitable wallets to copy or a forecast of trading income.
New to prediction markets?
Read How prediction markets work first. It follows a synthetic position through purchase, an early sale and settlement, and distinguishes cash paid from the market's displayed price.
For example, 100 YES shares bought at $0.40 cost $40 before fees. A $1 winning settlement pays $100, giving $60 gross profit; a zero settlement loses the $40 stake. A price of $0.40 is not proof that the true probability is 40%, and a $100 payout is not $100 profit. That distinction is the foundation for the rest of this library.
Before any funded use, check the entity, product and eligibility evidence. A working page or public API is not permission to trade. The guides do not require connecting a wallet to read or practice their arithmetic.
Choose the next guide by the work you need to do
Scroll sideways to see every column. Keyboard: focus the table region and use the arrow keys.
| Your question | Guide | What you should have afterward |
|---|---|---|
| Can I understand this event well enough to research it? | Market-selection worksheet | A shortlist with contract IDs, evidence sources and reasons to reject a market |
| Is the price different from a defensible probability estimate? | Test a mispricing hypothesis | Assumptions, probability range, costs and conditions that would invalidate the idea |
| Do these two venues offer the same payoff? | Polymarket and Kalshi comparison | Matched resolution rules, account requirements and a same-quantity cost calculation |
| Where did the money go? | Fees and cash reconciliation | Separate quantities for fills, fees, funding, early exit and settlement |
| Does a crypto threshold mean touch, close or average? | Crypto contract definitions | A precise event and named price source, without assuming an options hedge matches it |
| What can a wallet history actually show? | Whale-tracking evidence | A record of visible transactions and the holdings, hedges or identities still unknown |
These are task guides, not a mandatory reading marathon. If the rules are unclear, a fee is missing or the market lacks executable depth for the hypothetical size, write that down before adding another strategy.
Try one paper record
Choose a public contract without funding it. Save its ID, exact resolution text, source and cutoff timezone. Record a timestamped bid/ask snapshot and a hypothetical quantity. Write your probability estimate as a range and explain the evidence behind it. Then calculate the cost and both settlement outcomes, including the case where your assumption is wrong.
When the event resolves, compare the recorded forecast with the result and the applicable rule. A correct forecast does not prove you could have filled the order at the recorded price. Keep skipped and unsuccessful ideas as well as successful ones; a folder of winners is not a performance record.
For deeper implementation work, consult the official Polymarket documentation and retain the relevant API/rule version. Begin with read-only data and reproducible paper calculations. A working request is not a validated live trading system.
Use the free guides on their own
No purchase is needed for the worksheets and examples linked here. If you consider a separate paid product, check its current file list and version before buying. A research workbook is not automatically a live-data integration or a demonstrated trading strategy. This library makes no promise of a live-API spreadsheet, prebuilt dashboard or proven whale-trading system.
Educational material, not financial or legal advice. Binary positions can lose their whole stake; costs, access and settlement can differ by product. The examples are synthetic. AITR may earn commissions from marked referral links elsewhere, which do not establish a platform's suitability.